ASIA TURNS WEST FOR LPG

Asian buyers of liquefied petroleum gas are stepping up purchases from the United States and other Atlantic Basin suppliers as disrupted Gulf shipments upend one of the region’s most important fuel trades. India and China, the two biggest Asian importers of Middle East LPG, are at the centre of the shift, with traders, analysts and shipbrokers saying the scramble for replacement cargoes has pushed spot premiums to unprecedented levels and forced governments and industry to rethink supply security.

The immediate trigger has been the collapse in exports from the Gulf after the outbreak of war in late February and the severe disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle Eastern LPG exports fell 73% in March from the previous month to 419,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. The squeeze sent April-loading spot premiums for propane and butane from the Gulf to record highs of $250 a tonne over March Saudi contract price swaps, while Saudi Aramco lifted its April official selling price for propane by $205 a tonne to $750 and for butane by $260 a tonne to $800.

That shock is now reshaping trade flows. Preliminary Kpler data show U. S. LPG exports are expected to rise to a record 2.7 million barrels per day in April, with about 1.8 million barrels per day heading to Asia, up 14% from March. Traders say cargoes are also being drawn from Canada, Norway, Argentina and Australia, but the United States has emerged as the principal swing supplier because of its sheer export scale. Marex’s Vasudev Balagopal told Reuters that major importers were actively diversifying beyond the Gulf, although brokers caution that U. S. export terminals were already running close to capacity before the conflict and cannot fully replace Middle East barrels on their own.

The substitution is costly and slow. U. S. Gulf terminal fees for propane and butane hit record levels in March, and cargoes from the Gulf Coast to Asia typically take more than 30 days to arrive, compared with roughly two weeks from the Middle East. Even where a ceasefire has allowed some movement through Hormuz, traders are treating the route as fragile and unpredictable. Reuters reported on April 11 that some tankers had begun exiting the Gulf after a truce, but hundreds of vessels remained stranded or delayed, underlining how quickly physical dislocation can outlast any diplomatic pause.

India’s position illustrates the strain most clearly. The country consumed 33.15 million metric tonnes of LPG last year, with imports covering about 60% of demand and roughly 90% of those imports sourced from the Middle East. State-backed retailers have kept prices for 14.2-kg domestic cylinders unchanged to protect households, even as commercial LPG prices were raised in April and the government diverted supplies away from industry to shield cooking-gas consumers. Reuters also reported that India increased domestic daily LPG output by 40% to 50,000 tonnes and secured 800,000 tonnes of replacement cargoes from the United States, Russia, Australia and elsewhere.

Officials in New Delhi are also using the shortage to accelerate a structural shift towards piped gas. Emergency powers have been invoked to direct limited LPG toward households, while expansion of city gas networks has been fast-tracked. India added 580,000 new household piped-gas connections in March, up sharply from a year earlier, and credit-rating agency ICRA estimates the policy push could cut LPG imports by 10% to 15% by 2030. The fiscal logic is clear: household LPG is sold at deeply subsidised rates, while piped gas is priced closer to the market, easing pressure on public finances as well as on import dependence.

China faces a different kind of pressure. There, LPG is not only a cooking fuel but also a crucial petrochemical feedstock. Rystad Energy estimates regional steam crackers lost about 135,000 barrels per day of LPG demand in March from February levels, with further declines expected in April and May. In China, propane dehydrogenation plants, already running at only 60% to 65% because of weak margins before the conflict, are expected to cut operating rates again as feedstock shortages bite. That matters beyond the energy sector because PDH plants make propylene, a building block for plastics and a wide range of manufactured goods.